DeepGyre/Bitcoin on-chain analysis

Bitcoin on-chain analysis

What Bitcoin's own ledger says about holders, profit and loss, whales and exchanges.

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What you see

How each valuation metric is computed

Every valuation figure on this tab is an arithmetic restatement of the public ledger, not an opinion. MVRV divides market capitalization by realized capitalization: the same supply counted twice, once at today's price and once at the price of each coin's last on-chain move. A reading above one means the average coin last moved below the current price, so holders sit on paper gains; below one, the opposite.

SOPR looks only at coins that actually moved on a given day and compares what they were worth at that move with what they were worth at their previous one — spent outputs closing in profit or in loss. NUPL condenses MVRV into a single distance from the break-even line, and supply in profit is the share of all coins whose last-move price sits below spot. None of these requires an assumption about intent; each is a different lens on the same cost-basis ledger.

What the age and size bands say — and what they cannot

HODL waves split the whole supply into bands by how long ago each coin last moved, from one day to ten years. Coins that have not moved for years may be lost, patiently held, or locked in treasuries — the chart cannot tell those apart. What it does show honestly is how much supply changed hands recently: quiet weeks leave the old bands intact, heavy trading thickens the youngest one.

Whale bands group addresses by balance. Their structural weakness is that an address is not a person: one owner can spread holdings across many addresses, and one address can serve several owners, as venue custody does. Treat a shift between bands as a change in how coins are organized, and look for confirmation in flows before calling it accumulation or distribution.

Exchange flows, cost basis and the coverage limit

Short-term holders' deposits into exchanges arrive split into two series by whether the deposited coins last moved at a price below or above today's. Coins deposited in profit and coins deposited at a loss carry different recorded situations, which is why the tab keeps them apart instead of merging them into one undifferentiated flow.

Reserves are built from the addresses the venues themselves disclose. Disclosed addresses are a floor, not a ceiling: wallets held back from public lists are invisible to this count, so a sudden drop can also mean coins moved into an undisclosed wallet. And a deposit only makes coins available to sell — whether a sale happened shows up in executed trades, never in the ledger alone.

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Frequently asked

What is MVRV?

Market value over realized value: the market price against the average price at which every coin last moved. A high reading means holders sit on large paper profits.

Do exchange inflows mean selling?

They mean coins became available to sell. Whether they are sold is not visible on-chain.

Is a high MVRV a sell signal?

No. It is a factual statement that the average coin last moved well below the current price. How the market responds to that condition has varied widely across cycles; the metric describes a situation, not an instruction.

Why can exchange reserves look incomplete?

Because the count includes only addresses the venues publish. Custodial wallets kept off public lists are invisible to it, so reserves are a lower bound — cross-check them against net flows before drawing a conclusion.

Do deposits into exchanges always mean selling?

Deposits make coins available to sell; the sale itself, if it happens, appears in executed volume — a different dataset entirely. Heavy deposits have often coincided with sideways price, which is exactly why the two are reported separately.

Topics

Ethereum on-chain analysis
Who is early on Ethereum, what they are buying and where the ETH is moving.
Tokenized real-world assets (RWA)
Where tokenized treasuries, funds, credit, gold and stocks are being issued, and who holds them.
Bitcoin ETF flows
How much Bitcoin the spot ETFs hold and how much moved in or out each day.
Stablecoin flows
How much dollar liquidity is entering or leaving crypto, measured as stablecoin supply.
Token unlocks calendar
Which tokens release new supply soon, and how big each release is against the market.
Descriptive, not advice. Every score and verdict on this platform is an automated heuristic over public chain data and can be wrong in both directions.
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