Are we in a bull market? Our engines say: bull regime, bear cycle

Ask "are we in a bull market?" on any crypto timeline today and you get two loud answers. One camp points at bitcoin above its 200-day average and a 90-day rally of more than 25%. The other points at a price still a third below its all-time high and calls everything since a relief rally.

We put the question to our own platform on October 29, 2026. The answer was not "yes" or "no". It was a split, and the split is the most useful thing on the page. Our Market Regime engine reads 60/100: Bull Market. On the same tab, our Cycle Position index reads 31/100: Accumulation, and our Market Phase Engine reads 38.7/100: Recovery / Transition. Three engines, one market, three different words.

Our view, argued below: this is a bull regime inside a bear cycle. Bitcoin's trend has turned up, but the market behind it has not. Until breadth and liquidity confirm, "bull market" is a claim about the chart, not about crypto.

The case for "yes, it is a bull market"

Start with the strongest argument, because it is a real one. The Market Regime score is a weighted composite of seven signals, and all seven read live today (confidence 100%).

• Trend: 67. Bitcoin at about $80,159 sits above its 200-day moving average ($73,158), the Mayer Multiple is 1.10, and the 50-day average is above the 200-day (a golden cross). Most traders use exactly this definition of a bull market, and on it the answer is yes.
• Momentum: 83. The highest score on the board: +27.5% over 90 days.
• Macro: 60. Our global macro risk gauge reads 40/100, which is moderate rather than hostile.
• Derivatives: 54. Funding averages +0.0035%: positive, but nowhere near the crowded-long readings that usually mark a top.

A bull would also point out that the engine flips back only if bitcoin loses the 200-day average near $73,158, which is about 9% below the price. As long as that line holds, the trend case stands.

The case for "no, this is a bear-market rally"

Now read the same tab from the other side.

The cycle has not reset. Bitcoin peaked at $126,200 on October 6, 2025. Today it is 36.5% below that high, 388 days later. Our Cycle Position index, which scores cycle risk (0 = bottom, 100 = top, the opposite direction to Market Regime), puts the market at 31: Accumulation. That is the phase where long-term holders absorb supply, not the phase where a new bull is running.

The calendar says we may be at the low, not past it. Two independent readings of the last three cycles (time since the peak and time since the halving) intersect in a window from October 4 to November 5, 2026, and the card says we are inside it now. The same extrapolation puts the historical bottom range at $35,336 to $46,694, 63% to 72% below the peak. Separately, the bottom-to-bottom rhythm (3.91 and 3.93 years between the 2015, 2018 and 2022 lows) projected a low in the week of October 18 to 25, 2026, which has just passed.

The rally is narrow. This is the point we find hardest to argue with. Our Market Phase Engine counts how many of the top 25 altcoins trade above their own 50-day average: 3 of 25, or 12%. Bitcoin itself is above only 1 of its 3 key averages (20, 50 and 200 days); the 30-day change is −4.2%. Bitcoin dominance is 59.6%, above its recent anchor of 57.57%, and the altcoin season index sits at 52, neutral. A bull market where almost nothing but bitcoin's 200-day line is rising is a thin one.

New money is not arriving. The liquidity signal is the weakest of the seven at 40: stablecoin supply is down 2.0% over 30 days (see stablecoin net flows). Bull markets are usually fuelled by fresh dollars minted onto exchanges. This one, so far, is not.

Why the engines disagree, and why that is not a bug

The three scores do not contradict each other. They answer different questions.

• Market Regime asks: where is price relative to its own trend? A 90-day rally from a low pushes price over the 200-day average whether or not a new cycle has started. That is why a bear-market rally and the first leg of a new bull look identical on this score for weeks.
• Cycle Position asks: how far into the four-year rhythm are we, and how much risk is priced in? It is slow on purpose.
• Market Phase Engine asks: do several independent factors confirm each other? It needs breadth, trend and liquidity to agree, and today they do not.

We have tested our own regime score honestly, and it does not forecast the next 30 days; it describes where the market is. We publish that result on our methodology page rather than hide it. So a 60 tells you the trend is up today. It does not tell you the trend will survive.

Our verdict

Not yet a bull market. A bull regime in bitcoin's price, inside a cycle that still reads as accumulation. The regime engine is right that the trend turned. The cycle and phase engines are right that the market has not followed.

We would change our mind on evidence, not on a headline. Here is what would settle it, all of it visible on the platform:

1. Breadth: far more than 3 of 25 altcoins back above their 50-day averages, with the altcoin season index moving out of neutral.
2. Liquidity: stablecoin supply turning positive over 30 days.
3. Trend held: bitcoin keeping the 200-day average (around $73,158) through the end of the projected bottom window on November 5.
4. Dominance: bitcoin dominance falling back below its 57.57% anchor.

If those four line up, the Phase Engine will step up to Bullish Expansion and we will write the follow-up. If bitcoin loses the 200-day average instead, the Market Regime score flips, and the bear camp was right all along.

One honest caveat for both sides: the cycle windows are extrapolations from three cycles. That is a pattern, not a law, and the spot-ETF era may not respect it at all.

Now it is your turn

Which camp are you in, and what number are we missing? Reply in the comments below. We read every one, and if you bring evidence we have not measured, we will measure it.

All figures were read from DeepGyre's Market Regime, Cycle Position and Market Phase Engine cards on October 29, 2026. The cards update on their own, so today's numbers will move. For what traders were watching yesterday, see our Fed-day notes. This is market information, not investment advice.