Fed holds, markets price a December hike: what traders watched on October 28, and what our cards measured

Three stories dominated trader feeds on Wednesday, October 28: the Federal Reserve's decision, whether bitcoin could hold $80,000 into it, and the money moving through the spot ETFs. We went through each one and checked it against the live cards on DeepGyre. Every figure below was read from the platform the same afternoon, with the time it refers to.

1. The Fed held, and the market is already looking at December

The Fed kept its target range at 3.75–4.00%, as expected. The news was the vote: two policymakers wanted a quarter-point hike, after September's first hike in three years and with September inflation at 3.7%. There is no meeting in November, so the next decision is December 9, the one with the dot plot.

What does money say about December? DeepGyre's macro calendar reads two prediction exchanges side by side and never averages them. This afternoon both priced a 25 bp hike in December at 81.5%, a hold at 15.5–17.5%, and a cut at about 1–2%. The futures-based gauges quoted in the press sit in the same area (around 78%).

The same card asks a separate question, "at least one hike by…", and reads it from markets that price that question directly: 81.5–82% by December 9 and 92.5% by January 27. Beyond the Fed, the macro calendar lists what comes next: GDP and PCE inflation tomorrow (October 29), the jobs report on November 6 and CPI on November 10.

Where to find it: Global Macro → Calendar.

2. Bitcoin around $80,000: leverage is long, funding is calm

Bitcoin traded between about $80,000 and $81,700 through the day, reclaiming $81,000 before and after the decision. Commentary called it a weak October and asked whether leverage was crowded.

DeepGyre's derivatives strip read BTC at $80,897 with 8-hour funding at +0.0100% (longs pay, but only the baseline rate), open interest at $7.81B (+0.33% in 24h) and $8.69B of perpetual volume. The one flag raised was positioning: retail accounts were long 2.04 to 1, and top traders 1.87 to 1. The card reads that as a reason for caution, not a forecast.

Where to find it: Derivatives.

3. ETF flows: $176M into bitcoin funds, but the month is still negative

The headline number circulating today was $176M of net inflows into the US spot bitcoin ETFs for October 27. DeepGyre's ETF card shows exactly that: +$176M for BTC on October 27. Ether funds lost $60M and Solana funds $19M on the same day, so the total across all coins was +$100M.

The 30-day view is less flattering. Across 22 trading days the funds tracked here lost a net $1.67B, and most of it came from ether (−$1.37B; bitcoin −$79M). There were 9 inflow days and 13 outflow days, the worst being −$749M on October 22. The last two days were inflows (+$111M together).

Where to find it: Discover → ETF Net Flow Chart.

4. Asia bounced, but the drawdowns are still deep

A rally in Asian chip stocks spilled into crypto overnight, and Korea's KOSPI led it. DeepGyre's Asia card measures each index against its highest close of the last 252 sessions. The KOSPI rose 3.09% on the day and is still in a bear market (20% or more below that high). The CSI 300 (−19.29% from its high), the Shanghai Composite, the Nikkei 225 and the Hang Seng are all in correction. Only Taiwan is within 10% of its high.

Where to find it: Global Macro → Asia.

Also measured: oil

Oil above $100 a barrel came up in the macro risk discussion. On DeepGyre's RWA perpetuals card, open interest on oil perpetuals is about $1.0B, split almost evenly between centralized exchanges ($546M) and on-chain venues ($499M).

Where to find it: Derivatives → RWA Perpetuals.

What we do not cover

Some of today's stories are outside what DeepGyre measures, and we would rather say so than stretch a card to fit:

• Exchange security incidents (the Bithumb internal breach and the reported Coinbase customer-data exposure through a third-party analytics provider). We do not track exchange breaches.
• Company treasury disputes, such as the Datavault AI shares falling after it reported it could not withdraw bitcoin from an exchange.
• The US midterm elections on November 3. Our prediction-market tab follows the biggest conviction moves across all markets; it does not yet have a dedicated election view.

The short version

The Fed held, two members wanted a hike, and the market prices one for December at about 82%. Bitcoin held $80,000 with long-leaning but not overheated leverage. Bitcoin ETFs took in $176M on the day, while the 30-day total is still negative because of ether funds. The numbers above are snapshots from October 28; the cards update on their own.

This is market information, not investment advice.