The share of all coins whose holders are underwater right now — capitulation's raw material.
Supply in loss, latest MEASURED value: 37.52% of supply (as of 2026-10-29).
Only the measured series is printed here — the reconstruction (price-basis modelling) is a different series and is never mixed into the same figure.
Supply in loss is the share of bitcoin's circulating supply whose last on-chain acquisition price is above the current market price — coins that would realize a loss if they moved today. It is the bear-market's temperature gauge: as price falls below more of the cost-basis distribution, more of the supply goes underwater; recoveries bring bands of supply back above water in sequence.
The metric's force is behavioral. Holders underwater face a decision every day — realize the loss or keep holding — and capitulation phases are, mechanically, periods when a large share of supply chooses to realize that loss. Sustained high supply-in-loss with declining realized losses has historically described the late-bear regime: maximal underwater supply, exhausted sellers. The mirror metric, supply in profit, carries the same logic into bull phases.
This page prints the platform's MEASURED series only — supply minus supply in profit, an identity on the platform's own cost-basis data. The reconstruction (modelled cost basis) is a different series and is never mixed into the same figure.
High and falling: a large share of supply is underwater, but the sellers are exhausting — fewer realized losses despite maximal underwater supply, the classic late-bear texture.
Low and rising: most supply sits in profit and the marginal holder is turning underwater as price slips below the next cost-basis band — the early-bear texture.
Always read beside SOPR: supply in loss SIZES the underwater population; SOPR shows whether that population is actually realizing losses. The pair is the condition and the behavior.
The value is the platform's measured supply-loss series (app/intelligence/supply_loss), an identity over its own supply-in-profit data, stored on the daily schedule. Rule four of the platform's supply-in-loss methodology: the measured series and the reconstruction are never drawn or printed as one.
The share of circulating bitcoin whose last acquisition price is above the current market price — coins that would realize a loss if they moved now.
As an identity over the platform's own supply-in-profit data: supply minus supply in profit. The reconstruction from modelled cost basis is a separate series and is kept separate.
It sizes the population facing the hold-or-realize decision every day. Capitulation phases are when a large share of that population chooses to realize; the metric tracks the pressure, not the timing.
No metric does. Historically, maximal underwater supply with DECLINING realized losses has described late-bear regimes — a condition, not a countdown.
On the platform's metric page (linked below) and on the dashboard tab, which also renders the reconstruction series separately.