DeepGyre/Prediction markets

Prediction markets

Where the money betting on outcomes changed its mind the most in the last day.

What you see

How to read it

Settled and expired markets are excluded — a result is not a flip — and a thin market cannot print a large move on one fill. A belief path that could not be read is shown as unread, never as a flat line.

What it does not show

The board covers the open markets it can read; a venue or market outside that read is absent without a placeholder, and the floors it applies are printed beside the results.

Odds are contract prices on a venue's book — they carry the venue's own spread, and a belief path is that venue's trade history, not an opinion poll.

A conviction flip says where money changed its mind in a day. It says nothing about whether the market was right the first time or is right now.

Open prediction markets →

Frequently asked

What is a conviction flip?

A large change in the market-implied probability of an outcome within 24 hours.

Why are some big moves missing?

Markets that just resolved, or below the liquidity floors, are left out.

Are the odds a forecast?

They are what traders pay for an outcome right now, not a prediction by DeepGyre.

Why did a market disappear from the board?

It resolved or expired — a settled result is not a conviction flip, so it leaves the board.

Can a thin market print a fake flip?

A large order can move thin odds on one fill; that is why the liquidity floors are published with the count of markets they removed.

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