DeepGyre/Bitcoin HODL Waves

Bitcoin HODL Waves

The market's inventory by age: how much supply is old conviction and how much is new, restless money.

Latest STH measurement

Not available right now — the live tab shows it: open the dashboard.

What it is

HODL waves slice bitcoin's supply by coin age — the time since each coin last moved on-chain. Every band is a cohort of holders who have (so far) chosen not to spend: coins untouched for a decade, coins moved last year, coins moved this week. The bands' ebb and flow is the market's inventory management made visible — old supply wakes up and re-enters trade during distribution phases; fresh supply sinks into older bands when holders stop selling.

The band most traders watch is the short-term-holder share — coins younger than about 155 days. It is the restless part of supply: recently bought, more likely to be traded on emotion, and historically the source of both tops (peaked STH share during euphoric phases) and recoveries (a shrinking STH share as new coins age into conviction). Long-term-holder share is its mirror and the classic measure of conviction supply.

This page prints the platform's latest short-term-holder share measurement. The full band breakdown and the derivation live on the metric page.

How to read it

Watch the STH share's TREND: a rising share means new money is arriving faster than it ages; a falling share means supply is settling into longer hands.

Extremes are regimes, not signals: peak STH share has marked hectic phases; troughs have marked quiet accumulation.

Coin age counts MOVEMENT, not ownership — a coin moved between a holder's own wallets resets its age. The engine's derivation notes this on the metric page.

Data basis

The platform's HODL-waves engine (app/intelligence/hodl_waves) computes the age-band series from the public UTXO set on the daily schedule; this page embeds its latest short-term-holder measurement. The full-band history and the band definitions live on the metric page.

Frequently asked

What are HODL waves?

Bitcoin's supply divided into bands by coin age — time since each coin last moved. The bands show where supply sits: old conviction versus fresh, restless coins.

What is the short-term-holder share?

The share of supply younger than about 155 days — the cohort most likely to trade on recent price action, and the band whose peaks and troughs historically frame cycle phases.

Why did a coin's 'age' reset when nothing was sold?

Coin age counts on-chain movement. Transfers between a holder's own wallets move the coin and reset its age — the metric measures movement, not intent.

What does a shrinking STH share mean?

That recently bought supply is aging into longer hands — new coins are being held rather than churned, which is the classic texture of accumulation phases.

Where is the full chart?

On the platform's metric page for STH HODL waves (linked below) and on the dashboard tab.

Where to go next

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Descriptive, not advice. Every score, band and verdict on this platform is an automated heuristic over public chain data and can be wrong in both directions.
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